Staff Reporter
South Africa could record over 1 000 new infections of COVID-19 and more than 25 deaths per day in the near future if more stringent measures are not enforced to ensure adequate social distancing and good hygienic standards.
The situation could be further compounded by the approaching winter season said to present ideal conditions for the coronavirus that thrives in cold temperatures.
These are some of the findings contained in a paper jointly written by University of the Free State (UFS) mathematics lecturer Professor Abdon Atangana and Seda Igret Araz, who teaches the same subject at the Siirt University in Turkey.
Titled “Mathematical model of the COVID-19 spread in Turkey and South Africa”, the paper says authorities should make well-calculated scientific decisions to move from one level of the lockdown to the next and not be driven by emotions or public sentiment.
“South Africa has not yet won the war against COVID-19 and serious outbreaks are expected in the near future as the . . . season changes to winter,” reads part of the paper which investigates the spread of COVID-19 in Turkey and South Africa.
“Cold seasons are scientifically proven to be thriving climate for the survival of the coronavirus.
“Therefore, to avoid this foreseen crisis, social distancing must be a responsibility of each person . . . within . . . South Africa, and the transition from Level 5 to Level 1 should be implemented very wisely.”
The paper compares data collected in Turkey from March 11 to May 3 this year and in South Africa from March 5 to May 3.
The pair is however quick to point out that the paper is not aimed at praising or criticising any country but seeks to assess the effect of the lockdown and its regulations, and whether the concept can help save humans before the vaccine.
Atangana, who was named the youngest highly cited mathematician in the world last year, told The Free Stater by telephone that while South Africa registered its first confirmed case of COVID-19 ahead of Turkey on March 5, with Turkey recording its initial one a week later on March 11, the unfolding of the spread of the disease in both countries has defeated the general expectations that South Africa would record more infections and deaths compared to Turkey.
He said although both countries have put in place strict measures to protect their citizens, statistical predictions show two different patterns for both countries.
For instance, Turkey experienced a high and exponential growth in new infection numbers from March 11 to April 11 due to the late implementation of the lockdown regulations.
“South Africa was quick to respond and implemented a full lockdown March 28. However, from April 19 to May 2, the country has observed an exponential growth in new infections and deaths per day. This exponential growth is attributed to the relaxation and disobedience of lockdown regulations, probably due to the economic situation, increasing poverty effects among the larger population and also due to the migration from Level 5 to Level 4 on May 1,” said Atangana, who teaches maths at the Institute for Groundwater Studies in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS.
Atangana is also affiliated with the Department of Medical Research at the China Medical University, in Taichung, Taiwan.
He said while mathematical models of infectious diseases are not deemed useful by some people who feel that they cannot be utilised to develop a vaccine or cure of any given disease, it is important to note that the principal aim of these mathematical models is to describe a system using mathematical tools, concepts and language.
“Due to the magnitude of fear imposed by COVID-19 on humans, it is therefore paramount for mathematicians to provide conceptual models, using mathematical tools . . . that will be used to understand and predict the spread of COVID-19.
“Hence, throughout the history of human beings, researchers working within the field of mathematics have developed more accurate and efficient mathematical models,” he said.
Atangana also suggested that the current hygienic etiquette encouraging people to cough and sneeze in their folded elbow should be reconsidered given that the same elbow is now used to greet.
“I am not sure how safe it is because if someone who is infected coughs or sneezes into the folded elbow and then greet someone with it, what will stop the virus from spreading. I also think the water we use to wash hands should should be checked for any traces of the coronavirus,” he suggested.
